Clik here to view.
Who Will Take the Lead on Eurozone Growth?
While recent data suggest that the countries of the Eurozone have stabilized from their austerity-induced recession, the under-capitalized banking system is still in some distress and cannot provide...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Are These 5 Things the Headwinds to Economic Growth?
U.S. economic growth does not appear to be performing up to its potential, and there is little evidence that short-term fixes, such as the Fed’s quantitative easing program, have created any more net...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Global Economy in 2014: A Stronger Growth Path?
As we prepare for 2014, the world economic scene is evolving yet again with stronger growth potential in the U.S. and U.K., China encouraging market forces, and the European banking system still...
View ArticleClik here to view.
How Emerging Market FX Really Performed in 2013
The actual performance of key emerging market currencies was much more diverse in 2013 than is often assumed. Second quarter depreciation was the norm, and QE taper talk from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit is Shrinking
The U.S. federal budget has a reasonable probability (our base case scenario) of reaching operational balance – revenues equal expenses excluding interest expense – by FY2015. This is an amazing...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Food Price Inflation and El Nino
Food price inflation is increasing sharply in the U.S. Only last December, food prices were just 1.05 percent higher than the previous December. As of May 2014, food price inflation was running at...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Fed Rate Increase Could Come Sooner Than You Think
If the U.S. economy keeps growing, even modestly in the second half of 2014, and that is very likely, a Federal Reserve rate decision could come early in 2015, and sooner than many in the market...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Blu Putnam: Abenomics Likely to Disappoint
A spotlight shines very brightly on Japan at the moment – and especially on Prime Minister Abe – not unexpected of course when an economic policy bears your name. Abenomics was sold to the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Water, Not Economic Reform, is Brazil’s Next Challenge
Brazil re-elected incumbent Dilma Rouseff of the Worker’s Party (PT) as its President for the next four years. The mandate in this election was much smaller than her victory in 2010. This time...
View ArticleClik here to view.
FX Volatility and Central Bank Divergence
With former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and former head of the Bank of England Mervin King on the program at CME Group’s Global Financial Leadership...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Why the Spectacular Fall in Oil Prices?
There are powerful dynamics impacting the oil and natural gas markets on a global scale. Our perspective is that the current downward momentum in crude oil prices was caused by a confluence of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Arguments for Abandoning a Zero Rate Policy
There is a very good probability, perhaps 60 percent, that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will move at its April 28-29 or its June 16-17 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to abandon its...
View ArticleClik here to view.
What Next, If Fed Hikes Rates in December?
The message is now more transparent from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. In her many speeches of late, she has articulated with considerable clarity the path the Fed is likely to take as the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Should China and the U.S. Be Economic Partners?
China’s economy is decelerating and financial and commodity market participants are worried about the prospect of a recession in the second largest economy in the world. Nourial Roubini, speaking at...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Negative Rates Are Creating a Tax, Not a Stimulus
In 2016, we have seen the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprise the markets with a move into negative rates for commercial deposits held at the central bank. Then, we saw the European Central Bank (ECB) expand...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Rise of China as a Global Political Powerhouse
Speaking at CME Group’s 2017 Global Financial Leadership Conference (GFLC) in the session on “Globalism, Populism, and the Wave to Come”, Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of the Eurasia Group, spoke...
View ArticleClik here to view.
This Is Only Act One of U.S.-China Trade Tension
The rising tit-for-tat trade skirmishes between the U.S. and China are giving stock markets serious jitters, as well they should. Trade flows power global growth, which is currently on a synchronized...
View ArticleClik here to view.
How Italy’s Politics Helped Ignite A Historic Trading Day
The markets were in motion coming off the U.S. Memorial Day weekend, driven mostly by the chaos in Italian politics which has put anti-EU and anti-Euro sentiment in the spotlight. The Euro weakened...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Political Event Risk Raises Stakes for Sudden Price Movements
Political risk is rising – elections in Mexico, Brazil and the US; a leadership battle for the head of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan; the US planning protectionist trade tariffs involving...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Three Ways OPEC Decision Will Impact Oil Markets
The oil production decision at the OPEC meeting on Friday, June 22, is interesting on several counts. First, it is much more than an OPEC meeting, given the lobbying by the United States, and direct...
View Article
